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Ten years following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that polarised the country and triggered turmoil, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is equipped.

That conveys the caution from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Establishments Not Ready

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.

"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."

Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue

The team have examined the political, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.

"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.

"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."

Constitutional Provision

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there might be a referendum.

Insufficient Informed Dialogue

Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the absence of substantive discussion, said McBride.

"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in academia but hardly any politicians or campaigners are willing to participate with even the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"

Publication's Method

In the volume, no writer supports unity or the status quo. Both writes two pieces that seek neutrality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.

Debates range over identity markers, levies, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and provoke conversation.

"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Debate implies an recognition of the concept that there could be valid points on both sides."

Parallel Votes

A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters say they prefer unification but refuse increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British identity.

"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.

Probability of Referendum

McBride believes a national vote in his era is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a feckless government minister who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"

Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified points, he commented. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will in the end lose but all factions has possesses something to gain from the opposing viewpoints."

Request for Wider Discussion

Westminster must join the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This concerns your state. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."